Economic Pulse

Official Cash Rate
2.25%
↓ −25bps Nov 2025
Held at 2.25% — Feb 2026
Down from 5.50% peak (Aug 2024)
CPI Inflation (Annual)
3.1%
↑ Above 1–3% target band
Q4 2025 (Dec quarter)
Electricity & rates key drivers
GDP Growth (Annual)
1.3%
↑ First annual growth in 5 quarters
Q3 2025 (Sep quarter)
+1.1% quarterly growth
Unemployment Rate
5.4%
↑ Highest since Sep 2015
Q4 2025 (Dec quarter)
165,000 unemployed persons
Current context
March 2026
🏠 Mortgage rates The OCR has been cut 325bps since Aug 2024. Fixed mortgage rates have generally declined over the same period, though rates vary by lender and term. Current rates are listed on the
🥝 KiwiSaver returns Growth and Aggressive funds recorded 1-year returns of +10–13% for the year to 31 December 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. View full fund data on the
OCR Cutting Cycle — Aug 2024 to Present
9 Cuts · −325bps
Decision Date OCR After Change Decision Key Context
14 Aug 20245.25%−25bpsCUTFirst cut — inflation returning to band
9 Oct 20244.75%−50bpsCUTEconomy subdued, weak activity
27 Nov 20244.25%−50bpsCUTInflation within target band
19 Feb 20253.75%−50bpsCUTSpare capacity opening, weak demand
9 Apr 20253.50%−25bpsCUTGlobal tariff uncertainty weighing on NZ
28 May 20253.25%−25bpsCUTEconomic recovery gradual, exports strong
9 Jul 20253.00%−25bpsCUTInflation expected to stay within band
8 Oct 20252.50%−50bpsCUTSpare capacity, GDP contracted Q2
26 Nov 20252.25%−25bpsCUTNear cycle bottom, balanced risks
18 Feb 20262.25%HOLDInflation briefly above band in Q4 2025
Neutral Rate: The RBNZ estimates the long-run neutral OCR at approximately 2.75%. With the current OCR at 2.25%, monetary policy is now mildly stimulatory.
🧮 Rates are near multi-year lows. Use the Mortgage calculator to see fortnightly repayments at today's rates, or the KiwiSaver Forecast to model your retirement balance.
GDP Growth
Q1 2024 – Q3 2025
NZ GDP Quarterly Growth: Q1 2024 to Q3 2025 1% 0.5% -0.5% -1% 0% -0.2% Q1 24 2024 -0.4% Q2 24 +0.2% Q3 24 +0.5% Q4 24 +0.8% Q1 25 2025 -1.0% Q2 25 +1.1% Q3 25 Annual: GDP +1.3% YoY in Q3 2025 — first annual growth in five quarters
CPI Inflation
Q1 2023 – Q4 2025
NZ CPI Annual Inflation: Q1 2023 to Q4 2025 3% 1% target 2% 4% 6% 8% 6.7% 3.1% Q1 23 2023 Q3 23 Q1 24 2024 Q3 24 Q1 25 2025 Q3 25 Q4 25
Unemployment Rate
Q4 2023 – Q4 2025
NZ Unemployment Rate: Q4 2023 to Q4 2025 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 4.0% Q4 23 2023 4.3% Q1 24 4.6% Q2 24 4.8% Q3 24 5.1% Q4 24 2024 5.3% Q1 25 5.4% Q2 25 5.4% Q3 25 5.4% Q4 25 2025
Economic Outlook
March 2026
Monetary PolicyMildly Stimulatory
OCR vs Neutral Rate2.25% vs 2.75%
Inflation Target BandAbove (3.1% vs 1–3%)
GDP TrendRecovering (+1.1% Q3)
Labour MarketSoftening (5.4%)
Next OCR Decision9 Apr 2026
NZ GDP returned to annual growth in Q3 2025 (+1.3%) after five quarters of contraction. The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% in February 2026 as inflation briefly exceeded the 1–3% target band.
Edit mode — click any return figure to update it.

KiwiSaver Fund Returns

After-fees performance ranked by return · 31 December 2025 quarter

Data as at 31 December 2025 · Source: Disclose Register
Showing

Conservative

— funds
# Fund 3M% 1Yr% 3Yr p.a. 5Yr p.a. 10Yr p.a. Fee%FUMMembers
Fee ≤0.50%
0.51–0.99%
≥1.00%
— = no data yet

Moderate

— funds
# Fund 3M% 1Yr% 3Yr p.a. 5Yr p.a. 10Yr p.a. Fee%FUMMembers
Fee ≤0.50%
0.51–0.99%
≥1.00%
— = no data yet

Balanced

— funds
# Fund 3M% 1Yr% 3Yr p.a. 5Yr p.a. 10Yr p.a. Fee%FUMMembers
Fee ≤0.50%
0.51–0.99%
≥1.00%
— = no data yet

Growth

— funds
# Fund 3M% 1Yr% 3Yr p.a. 5Yr p.a. 10Yr p.a. Fee%FUMMembers
Fee ≤0.50%
0.51–0.99%
≥1.00%
— = no data yet

Aggressive

— funds
# Fund 3M% 1Yr% 3Yr p.a. 5Yr p.a. 10Yr p.a. Fee%FUMMembers
Fee ≤0.50%
0.51–0.99%
≥1.00%
— = no data yet
How to read this table
Return figures (1Yr%, 3Yr, 5Yr, 10Yr columns)
+5.2% Positive return — fund grew in value
−1.3% Negative return — fund lost value
No data yet (fund too new for this period)
Fee% column — annual fund charge colour coded
≤0.50% — low fee, keeps more of your return
0.51–0.99% — moderate fee
≥1.00% — high fee, erodes returns significantly over time
💡 Why fees matter so much

A 1% annual fee difference on a KiwiSaver balance compounds to $100,000–$300,000 less at retirement over a 40-year working life — modelled using the KiwiRates calculator across typical NZ salary and contribution scenarios.

The Fee% shown is the total annual fund charge (management fee + expenses). Returns shown are already after fees are deducted.

Fund type reference — asset allocation guide
Click any fund type below to jump to that category · For information only — not a recommendation
Conservative
~20% growth assets, ~80% income assets
Moderate
~40% growth assets, ~60% income assets
Balanced
~60% growth assets, ~40% income assets
Growth
~80% growth assets, ~20% income assets
Aggressive
~100% growth assets, minimal income assets

NZ Interest Rates

Fixed mortgage rates from major NZ banks and lenders

📊 Context: The OCR dropped from 5.50% to 2.25% between Aug 2024 and Feb 2026 — a total of 325bps across 9 cuts. Fixed mortgage rates have generally followed, though with a lag. Shorter fixed terms (6 months, 1 year) are currently priced lower than longer terms at most lenders. Rate conditions and individual circumstances vary — speak with a licensed mortgage adviser for personalised guidance.
🧮 See what these rates mean for your repayments. Enter your loan amount into the Mortgage Repayment calculator — results update as you type.
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Main banks
Other providers

= lowest rate for that term across all providers shown.

Financial Calculators

Results update as you type  ⬤ Live

🥝
KiwiSaver Forecast
Project your balance at retirement
$
$
%
Default rising to 3.5% from Apr 2026
%
Minimum 3% required by law
%
Conservative ~4–5% · Balanced ~6–8% · Growth ~8–10%
%
Typical: 0.2%–1.5% ·
Govt contributes 25c per $1 you contribute, up to $260.72/yr (from July 2025). Not available if income >$180k.

Assumptions: Salary grows with inflation (2% p.a.) — real purchasing power of contributions held constant. Constant return rate, monthly contributions. Govt: 25c per $1 up to $260.72/yr (from July 2025). Returns after fees, before tax (most KiwiSaver funds are taxed as PIEs — your PIR tax rate applies). Illustrative only — not financial advice.

KiwiSaver Results

Projected balance
Nominal (future dollars)
Total contributed
You + employer + govt
Investment growth
Returns minus fees
Real value (today's dollars)
Adjusted for 2% annual inflation
Purchasing power lost
Eroded over
ContributionsGrowth
Contributions + govt + employer
Investment growth
Total annual contributions: (you + employer + govt)
Balance over time
Contributions
Total balance
🏠
Mortgage Repayment
Monthly, fortnightly or weekly payments
$
NZ median house price ~$780k. Deposit typically 20%
% p.a.
years
Standard NZ term is 25–30 years
Fortnightly saves ~2–3 years vs monthly over a 30yr loan

Assumptions: P&I repayments, fixed rate for full term. Fortnightly = monthly × 12 ÷ 26. Illustrative only.

Mortgage Results

Fortnightly payment
Total repaid
Total interest
PrincipalInterest
Remaining balance over time
Remaining balance
Cumulative interest
📈
Compound Interest
Watch your money grow over time
$
$
%
years

Assumptions: Constant return rate, monthly compounding. Inflation adjustment uses 2% p.a. (RBNZ target midpoint). Does not account for tax or variable returns. Illustrative only.

Compound Results

Final value
Nominal (future dollars)
Total invested
Interest earned
Real value (today's dollars)
Adjusted for 2% annual inflation
Purchasing power lost
Eroded over
InvestedInterest
Portfolio value over time
Total invested
Portfolio value
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For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Returns after fees, before tax. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data verified with provider disclosures. Consult a licensed financial adviser for personal guidance. Source: Disclose Register · 31 December 2025.